Who pays when the curve turns? Sub-$50m lenders that wrote fixed-rate assets in 2025 now fund them on a curve priced for hikes. D3T ran three illustrative $50m warehouses against today’s forwards to see where the margin goes. At the end of September 2025, the forward curve put three-month SOFR for this winter at 3.12%;…
The cap decides who waits What the filings of 16 semi-liquid private credit funds, and 13 liquidity events since 2007, show about where the cash to pay leavers comes from. In the third quarter of 2026, shareholders in the six largest non-traded business development companies (BDCs) asked for 13.2% of their shares back. Each fund…
Where the tickets stop Private debt capital is concentrating in funds of $5bn or more, and a fund has a set time in which to put its money to work. We set that clock against the pace at which lending vehicles take on new borrowers. The maths leaves the originator that needs less than $50m…
The seat nobody writes from From my perspective every analysis of who funds asset-based finance is written from the allocator’s chair. The borrower’s chair is where the risk lands. A business with a working capital or warehouse facility spends its energy on the things it controls. Collections. Dilution. Obligor concentration. Covenant headroom. The borrowing base…
The same seat, a different promise Two funders can occupy an identical position in a structure and behave nothing alike, because what sits behind them is not the same. Most comparisons of funding sources compare the wrong thing. They set bank senior lending against fund capital and attribute the difference in behaviour to the character…
Two regulators, opposite directions Changing capital charges and the focus on insurance capital as a source of liquidity in ABF On 23 June the National Association of Insurance Commissioners adopted new C-1 capital factors for insurer holdings of CLO tranches. A position rated Baa3 carries a charge of 3.281%. One notch lower, at Ba1, the…
It was lodged in April We commissioned research to show that a group structure had hidden the exposure. It showed the opposite, which is the more useful answer The intended article was about invisibility. A property group running several hundred project vehicles, forty-odd lenders each facing a different one, and an aggregate that nobody could…
The File is the Product Twelve asset-based finance frauds, US$9.4bn of headline quantum, and one failure common to every one of them. We have spent some of the summer building a register of fraud events in asset-based finance. Using public data we have Fifteen cases, twelve of them between September 2023 and August 2026, with…
Context tells you who to lend to. It does not tell you who will pay. Embedded finance is right that data at the point of purchase improves selection. Selection is not where unsecured lenders lose money. In its Credit Conditions Survey for the second quarter, the Bank of England reported that lenders saw default rates…
The guarantee is not collateral NVIDIA has agreed to backstop a quarter of its own chips’ residual value. What that promise is worth depends entirely on when you need it On the 10th of August, NVIDIA announced financing platforms with Apollo, Blackstone, BlackRock, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR, intended to mobilise more than $500bn of…