Who pays when the curve turns? Sub-$50m lenders that wrote fixed-rate assets in 2025 now fund them on a curve priced for hikes. D3T ran three illustrative $50m warehouses against today’s forwards to see where the margin goes. At the end of September 2025, the forward curve put three-month SOFR for this winter at 3.12%;…
The cap decides who waits What the filings of 16 semi-liquid private credit funds, and 13 liquidity events since 2007, show about where the cash to pay leavers comes from. In the third quarter of 2026, shareholders in the six largest non-traded business development companies (BDCs) asked for 13.2% of their shares back. Each fund…
Where the tickets stop Private debt capital is concentrating in funds of $5bn or more, and a fund has a set time in which to put its money to work. We set that clock against the pace at which lending vehicles take on new borrowers. The maths leaves the originator that needs less than $50m…